Bio
I’m a PhD student in Economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, where I study topics in education and household finance.
Before starting grad school, I worked as a research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York after graduating from UW–Madison.
Curriculum Vitae
Email: jgoss3@wisc.edu
Publications
with Daniel Mangrum and Joelle Scally
Education Finance and Policy, 2024
Abstract: We quantify the total stock of balances eligible for the Biden administration's 2022 student loan forgiveness proposal and examine which groups would have benefited most. Up to $442 billion in loans were eligible. Those who would have benefited most were younger, had lower credit scores, and lived in lower- and middle-income neighborhoods. We also find that Black and Hispanic borrowers would have disproportionately benefited from the proposal. We then compare the distribution of beneficiaries for the proposed policy to several alternative hypothetical forgiveness proposals and three existing tax credits. The additional forgiveness for Pell Grant recipients increased the progressivity of the policy at a cost of $129 billion. Reducing the income eligibility criterion in half from the proposal would have reduced the cost by nearly $100 billion and made the policy more progressive. Compared with existing tax credits, the announced forgiveness policy is less progressive than the Earned Income Tax Credit but more progressive than the 2019 Child Tax Credit and higher education tax credits. We conclude with a discussion of how each policy lever affects the progressivity of loan cancellation to help inform future policy.
Working Papers
with Daniel Mangrum
Abstract: Since the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, 38 states have legalized mobile sports betting. We study effects on betting and consumer credit, emphasizing spatial spillovers across state lines. Using consumer spending data and an extended two-way fixed effects framework that separately identifies direct and spillover effects, we find that legalization increases total sportsbook spending roughly tenfold and take-up by 3.1 percentage points. Counties in non-legal states within 15 miles of a legal state experience spillover spending equal to roughly 14% of the direct effect, with these spillovers declining to roughly zero by 60 miles. Using the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, we find that median credit scores decline by roughly 1 point and overall delinquency rises 0.3 percentage points from a 10.7% base, with spillover delinquency rising nearly 0.2 percentage points. Under-40 auto loan delinquency increases by half a percentage point and credit card delinquency by one percentage point, driving the overall increase in delinquency. Scaling the population-level delinquency effect by take-up yields implied delinquency increases of roughly 10 percentage points among induced bettors. We conclude with a policy simulation which reveals that spillovers create a fiscal asymmetry: states that have not legalized bear costs from cross-border betting without capturing tax revenue, giving high-exposure states a stronger case for legalization. This incentive is increasing in states that have higher pre-legalization betting activity, population centers near legal states, and a younger population. Methodologically, we show that ignoring spatial spillovers can contribute to attenuated estimates and an under-count of the affected population.
Refinancing Student Debt: Borrower Preferences and Policy Implications
Abstract: This paper examines the effects of student loan refinancing on borrower repayment and financial health using a large administrative credit bureau panel and a modern difference-in-differences design. I develop a novel algorithm to identify refinancing events, since they are not directly observed in the data, and estimate effects across multiple treatment models and control groups to assess robustness to selection bias. Refinancing leads to a persistent decline in student loan delinquency of roughly 6 percent, driven by improved liquidity rather than accelerated repayment, as refinancers keep their paydown rate constant but receive higher credit card limits and miss fewer payments on other debts. I also find modest increases in mortgage participation, suggesting spillovers into the housing market. Because refinancing is available primarily to low-risk borrowers, its benefits accrue to a relatively advantaged group, with implications for the distribution of financial relief and the risk composition of the federal student loan portfolio.
Policy & Blogs
with Daniel Mangrum
Liberty Street Economics, March 2026
Media Coverage
with Daniel Mangrum and Joelle Scally
Liberty Street Economics, September 2022
Media Coverage
with Daniel Mangrum and Joelle Scally
Liberty Street Economics, April 2022
Media Coverage
with Daniel Mangrum and Joelle Scally
Liberty Street Economics, March 2022
Media Coverage
